On July 19th, the Ministry of human resources and social affairs released the results of the medical insurance catalogue access negotiations. With 7 varieties of competition and price estimates of sales income changes, recommend focusing on competition, the market has a large space, the exact clinical effect varieties listed companies Hengrui medicine (apatinib), Kang Hong Pharmaceutical (Xipu, Compaq) (Xin Litai, Lisa Staw).

According to the Ministry issued "on the 36 kinds of drugs included in the national basic medical insurance, work-related injury insurance and maternity insurance drug list B range notice", 36 kinds of drugs were included in the negotiations in 2017 the new national Medicare B range, and simultaneously determine these drugs of medical insurance payment standard.

Price range is generally large, concerned about the large varieties of domestic enterprises to benefit. The average reduction in the health care negotiations at about 40%, the enterprise price change strategy can work, yet to be verified. Focus on the 7 varieties of domestic enterprises to benefit: for Grillo, recombinant human prourokinase, recombinant human brain natriuretic peptide, alli medoxomil, apatinib, Con Buter Heap, compound Huangdai tablets.

Mostly for exclusive products, a good competition

From the generic drug situation, alli medoxomil apatinib, Con Buter Heap, and compound Huangdai tablets are the original research exclusive varieties, there is no generic declaration; recombinant human Pro urokinase and recombinant human brain natriuretic peptide is only one of the companies in the reporting of clinical, in the short term of the original research enterprises have little impact; there are only for Grillo AstraZeneca's original products, domestic listed companies sheenlip Taihe Pharmaceutical Group Pharmaceutical is expected to will be listed at the end of the year, with generics price advantage challenge the original research status of enterprises.

The patient pays a substantial decrease in fees and increases willingness to use. Taking into account the price decline + class B average reimbursement of 80%, the patient pays down more than 80%.

For the clinical effect is good, but because of the price reasons for the use of less drugs, patients will increase the will to use. The penetration rate of these drugs, especially the exclusive varieties, will increase rapidly after the inclusion of health care.

Manufacturers to price change, long-term sales revenue increased significantly. Without regard to changes in sales, the price impact on the short-term income of the factory is self-evident. But if the composite price, sales volume change, 2018-2020 annual sales revenue will be significantly improved estimates into Medicare, apatinib, Con Buter Heap, ticagrelor, alli medoxomil future has the potential to grow into 1 billion or 2 billion varieties. Taking into account these products have not yet peatlands, gross margin to further enhance the space, temporarily consider the impact on the company's gross profit.

Investment advice

With 7 varieties of competition and price estimates of sales income changes, recommend focusing on competition, the market has a large space, the exact clinical effect varieties listed companies Hengrui medicine (apatinib), Kang Hong Pharmaceutical (Xipu, Compaq) (Xin Litai, Lisa Staw).